Dota 2 statistician and datdota administrator Ben “Noxville” Steenhuisen launched a special site ahead of this year’s The International (TI10).

The website specifically utilizes the Monte Carlo simulation model to predict which team will most likely win the competition, and OG Esports is not one of them.

Can OG Esports win TI for a third time? Noxville lays down the statistics

OG Esports, Noxville

Crowd favorites OG Esports only has a 3.22% chance of bagging the Aegis of the Champions this year according to the Noxville’s The International probability website.

With a 24.98% probability of getting 9th to 12th place, the model predicts that OG Esports will most likely fall out of the competition during the Main Event’s Upper and Lower Bracket matches.

Dota 2, The International 10, 2021, Monte Carlo simulation, Noxville
Screenshot by Kristine Tuting/ ONE Esports

Still, fans are expecting another miraculous run from the sole two-time TI champions with players Johan “N0tail” Sundstein, Sébastien “Ceb” Debs, and Topias “Topson” Taavitsainen leading the squad.

OG Esports bested Tundra Esports at the Dota 2 European qualifier, and narrowly secured one of the last spots for The International.

China, led by PSG.LGD, is ahead of the TI10 competition

Ame, PSG.LGD, Dota 2, DPC upper division
Credit: Perfect World

Meanwhile, 2021 WePlay! AniMajor champions and Chinese team PSG.LGD has the highest chance of becoming TI10 champions, with a 18.86% probability.

OG Esports N0tail too, believes PSG.LGD is one of the teams to watch out for in the upcoming Dota 2 tournament.

“(I want to face) PSG.LGD,” shared N0tail with ONE Esports. “They have a lot of cool vibes when you watch them play.”

Even Evil Geniuses’ team captain Tal “Fly” Aizik thinks they’re “one of the toughest” out of all 18 qualified TI10 teams.

“I would love to have a rematch with PSG.LGD, since last time they 3-0’d us,” said Fly in an interview with ONE Esports.

Overall, China as a region sits on top of the charts with a 50.51% chance of winning The International 2021, according to Noxville’s probability website.

Aside from PSG.LGD, this year’s qualified China-based teams include Invictus Gaming, Vici Gaming, Team Aster, and Elephant. A total of 24% of TI10 players represent China.

Noxville’s The International probability website currently bases its predictions on existing team-based skill metrics. The Dota 2 statistician promises he will update the rankings as soon as more information comes to light before TI10.

READ MORE: The most interesting stats I collected from the Singapore Major – by Noxville