So, for the duration of MPLI, ONE Esports are running a Fantasy Challenge with Diamonds on the line for the top performers.
Now, as much as I like a good challenge, this ain’t a game no more when Diamonds are on the line. So if you wanna have the best chances to earn those Fantasy Tokens, then let me tell you the factors that will matter in your decisions to get you to the top of that leaderboard and 3,500 Diamonds!
For this article, I’m gonna focus on Pick’Em, since if you get all three questions correct, will make you eligible to split the massive 3,000 Fantasy Tokens prize pool. Yep, if you’re the only person to get all three questions correct, you’ll walk away with all 3,000 Tokens.
So for Pick’Em you need to answer three questions correctly:
- Who will win?
- Which team will get the most kills?
- How many Lords will be killed?
For question one, thanks to Wolf we have a baseline to understand who are the strongest teams in the tourney right now. Teams may get upset by the time you see this so please keep up to date with the teams still in the tournament!
Now the obvious choice would be to follow this through and through so take the highest probability of the top five as the most obvious choices especially as you get closer to the end of MPLI and more importantly keep a close eye on each team’s performance.
This is gonna give you 60% probability at a minimum but let’s maximize these tokens even further (they ain’t strong teams on Wolf’s list for nothing).
The second question you get is who is gonna get the most kills? DO NOT, and I repeat… DO NOT EVER select a draw. It’s never a draw, the probability of a game ending with the exact same amount of kills is highly unlikely.
You’re working with a 1 out of 10 chance of actually getting this right. MPL MY alone only has 2 games out of the 8 weeks plus playoffs that actually ended up in a game with exactly the same kill count. The same can be said about the other MPL, mainly PH and ID which statistically have lower kill count games in general.
The only situations where you see a draw in kill count is when a losing team makes a comeback in the 16th plus minute of the game where the death timers are quite long! Remember you are picking the winning team here, not a team that “kinda” won.
Lastly, let’s address the Lords. First of all, what exactly does it mean by 3.5 Lord KDA higher or lower. Simply put, ONE Esports fantasy is asking you whether or not there will be 3 or less Lords or 4 or more Lords on average within that series.
I am not gonna lie, I was pretty confused about this at first. However, I have a semi-foolproof way of beating the system. For this example, I will be referring to everything based on a best of three match as things get a little unpredictable once it becomes a best of five so let’s break this down.
To achieve 3.5 Lord KDA, team A will need to get three lords for two of the games and four for one of them. Now with Wolf’s Power Rankings, you have a good idea who is gonna win that game. Factor in the average amount of Lords needed to end a game.
In most MPLs, winning teams need two to quickly end, losing teams need four to come back (team A gets the first two, Team B steals one, Team B ends the game after closing the gold gap and claiming the last lord), and 50/50 games take 4+. So if you think it’s going to be a quick stomp pick less than 3.5, and if you think it could be a long drawn out game pick over 3.5.
There’s an exception, however, and that’s the Grand Finals, which are a best of five. As soon as you see best of five then the odds of 3.5 Lord KDA spikes up to 70%. Bo5’s take longer, the odds are higher as bo5’s only occur on the last leg of tourneys with the strongest teams, and teams generally don’t want to lose and will do everything to win (even if they have to drag the game till 30+ minutes… I’m looking at you Geekfam MY & ID).
Hopefully, this gives you some insight or at the very least averages your token gains to help you get a share of those Fantasy Tokens. Even if this doesn’t get you to the top of the leaderboard, it will give you one hell of an advantage for upcoming events pre playoffs by just knowing the baseline.
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